REPORT ON ORO VALLEY SAFE YIELD

 

Hector Conde,  10/10/01

 

ASSUMPTIONS: Population growth will continue at its present rate of 7%/yr. Natural recharge for the area is 2500 AF/yr.  Water table decline is assumed to continue at the present rate of .001113 ft per AF of water use. At some time water will be blended with CAP water at a 40-60 rate, to be delivered to the user (40% CAP water). There are not supposed to be any more golf courses built in Oro Valley using potable water.

 

TABLE 1 shows water usage in Oro Valley for a 10 year period. Row “town use” shows the town withdrawal from all OV wells. Subtracting irrigation use leaves use by the population. Row “Population” comes mostly out of PAG data and the census. The town of Oro Valley does not report golf course usage. Data recently obtained from ADWR shows all golf courses demand, both from the OVWU and private (Oro Valley Country Club and AMPHI). AMPHI use is for irrigation of lawn and is about 100 AF/yr. This shows that potable water pumped for golf courses is one-third of the town usage. This percentage has changed from 1996 due to population increases. Actually the golf course water use has increased 15 percent from last year and 50 percent in the last ten years.

 

TABLE 2 shows yearly water table decline, by well. It is built from some data points and further linear interpolation. The last row on TABLE 2 shows average yearly decline in each of the last 20 years.

 

TABLE 3 shows population increase and water use through the year 2025. Population increase is assumed at a rate of 7% per year. I used  the last  year use per capita, that is .22 AF/yr.

 

Column E is the sum of Population and Golf Course use.

Column H is column E minus the natural recharge.

Column I is 40% of column E, plus the natural recharge

Column J is 40% of column E minus natural recharge.

 

The deficit is calculated based on the water use minus the natural recharge, calculated by a local hydrologist at 2500 AF/yr.  We believe that the natural recharge is in excess of 3500 AF/yr. This case will increase column J in tables 3, 4 and 5 by 1000. The deficit shows to be worsening continually.

 

If CAP water is available in 5 years (2006), an unlikely event, and blended with local water at a 40-60 rate, only the amounts shown in column H can be blended to work towards safe yield. Nevertheless, this will result in a constantly increasing deficit.

 

Water level decline after the year 2000 is calculated by multiplying column H by a constant,  .008416 ft per AF of water demand (year 2000). TABLE 3 shows that the water table would drop 430 feet by 2025. Even if golf courses were irrigated with CAP water in 2006 the deficit by 2025 will be 21,493 AF/yr.

 

TABLE 4 shows the results of a population growth of 4%.  

 

TABLE 5 shows that, even if population growth will cease immediately, there still will be a considerable water deficit.

 

CONCLUSIONS: The continuous mining of water is going to provoke the following problems in the near future:

 

1. Safe yield will not be obtained just by blending CAP water at any time. By the year 2025, the population will be drinking mostly unblended CAP water. Nevertheless, CAP water use is absolutely necessary to alleviate the problem.

At that time, the water deficit will be 21,000 AF/yr, or almost 3 times the present deficit.

 

2. The proposed use of desalinization is going to make the drinking water more expensive, even if the methods available for treatment were feasible.

 

3. It has been shown in the scientific literature (1) that, depending on the geology, subsidence may occur after a 100 foot decline in the water table. In Oro Valley this could happen in the year 2007. Subsidence may destroy infrastructure, including roads and underground pipes.

 

4. Thanks to Mr. Bob Rubino for his useful comments.

 

Data was obtained from the town of Oro Valley and the ADWR.

 

 

(1) S.R.Anderson. Potential for aquifer compaction, land subsidence and earth fissures in the Tucson basin. USGS HA-713

R.T.Hanson and J.F.Benedict Simulation of ground-water flow and potential land subsidence, Upper Santa Cruz Basin, Arizona USGS Rept. 93-4196

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WATER USAGE IN OV AREA  WELLS

 

#######

 

 

 

 

ov #

WELL

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

 

 

 

 

CH1

55-612363

322.72

393.61

378.7

392.86

368.97

362.6

680

653.88

638.02

465.92

376.85

CH2

55-612364

20.07

22.68

23.3

182.99

231

322

193

0.8

1.26

78

67.46

CH3

55-612365

 

460.31

440.66

412.05

CH4

55-612366

267.44

280.9

285.7

290.61

287

325

345

363.76

387.62

398.13

386.42

CH5

55-612367

278.29

273.56

284.06

322.36

373

260

250

238.79

231.55

225.45

229.37

CH6

55-612368

62.79

61.28

61.68

36.71

172

311

465

440.06

349.75

340.67

307.06

CH7

55-612369

14.39

24.94

33.57

55.62

74

116

104

193.05

262.37

326.73

280.70

CH8

55-612370

46.59

12.05

7.82

23.45

6

9

49

0.07

0.84

0.07

0.10

CH9

55-504285

107.74

133.12

142.22

11.1

106

99

148

151.84

114.95

15.07

0.00

CH10

55-506548

 

408.99

456.19

494.69

CH11

55-505862

101.86

78.3

76.49

87.42

88

103

140

161.65

118.46

115.24

166.82

CH12

55-510019

394.04

415.83

491.81

484.43

517

404

279

417.91

389.47

354.29

469.51

CH14

55-517374

423.38

481.49

415.35

353.06

346

318

288

243.61

182.48

251.22

273.10

CH15

55-512346

113.99

113.32

11.34

115.88

125

92

112

108.95

79.75

120.21

9.68

CH17

55-544219

 

257

378.42

259.17

315.34

340.68

CH18

55-537133

 

222.21

584.99

1010.66

CH23

55-565547

 

106.89

713.77

 

55-628749

 

307.57

RV1

55-605802

322.72

393.61

378.7

392.86

368.97

362.6

389

330.98

265.12

487.88

499.33

RV2

55-605799

 

429

363.52

330.15

580.5

702.44

RV3

55-605803

0.76

5.86

63.3

0

96.55

370.3

413

274.35

265.08

215.91

339.45

RV9

55-517031

 

183

138.84

89.39

135.92

152.74

RV19

55-543853

 

233.75

489.31

425.57

467.35

RV20

55-517644

0

0

81.66

312.58

638.46

806.8

691

717.36

506.65

777.95

654.49

RV22

55-547718

 

3

173

283.82

258.59

432.57

462.82

 

 

Town use

AF

2476.8

2690.6

2735.7

3061.9

3797.95

4264

5588

5695.4

6311.5

7651.4

9125.11

%increase

 

8.6

1.7

11.9

24.0

12.3

31.0

1.9

10.8

21.2

19.3

OVWU golf c

AF

1367.9

1631.2

1674.7

1658.6

1613.2

1938

2151.2

2012.8

2196.9

2091.2

2467.3

Pop usage

AF

1108.9

1059.4

1061

1403.3

2184.75

2326

3436.8

3682.6

4114.6

5560.2

6657.81

% of pop.use

     golf

123.36

153.98

157.84

118.19

73.84

83.33

62.59

54.66

53.39

37.61

37.06

% of tot.use

     golf

55.23

60.63

61.22

54.17

42.48

45.45

38.50

35.34

34.81

27.33

27.04

Population (PAG)

6670

7745

9024

10335

11947

19657

21726

23794

25863

27931

30000

Pop Incr

%

 

13.9

14.2

12.7

13.5

39.2

9.5

8.7

8.0

7.4

6.9

Use/pers

AF/yr

0.17

0.14

0.12

0.14

0.18

0.12

0.16

0.15

0.16

0.20

0.22

Avg use/pers

0.1591

 

 

Use/pers

gall/day

 

122.13

104.98

121.24

163.28

105.66

141.25

138.19

142.05

177.74

198.15

 

 

GOLF COURSE AND IRRIGATION USAGE

 

 

 

 

OVCClub

58-101530

511.5

429.9

408.8

475.7

411.9

615

456

506

443

488

576.00

AMPHI

55-617049

107.37

122.56

103.93

105.27

109.17

104.9

101.15

105.89

98.35

88.6

96.87

El Conq CC

OVWU

716.1

1035.6

1016.8

955

942.7

948.6

1036.2

955.1

819

837.8

898.60

El Conq Res

OVWU

273.5

227.7

266.3

282.6

226.5

198.5

216

200.8

206.7

224.8

204.00

GC @ Vistoso

OVWU

 

289.2

467.3

449.7

343.2

349.2

353.30

Stone Cy

OVWU

 

443

240

595.80

Sun City

OVWU

378.3

367.9

391.6

421

444

502

431.7

407.2

385

439.4

415.60

OVWU GC's

1367.9

1631.2

1674.7

1658.6

1613.2

1938

2151.2

2012.8

2196.9

2091.2

2467.3

Total==>

 

1986.8

2183.7

2187.4

2239.6

2134.27

2658

2708.4

2624.7

2738.3

2667.8

3140.2

%increase

 

9.0

0.2

2.3

-4.9

19.7

1.9

-3.2

4.1

-2.6

15.0

%incr.10 yr

 

 

36.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALL WELLS, INTERPOLATED, FT

 

 

 

#####

 

 

8/23/08

 

 

 

 

12:42

 

 

 

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

 

max

min

 

 

 

 

CH1

 

 

0.23

0.46

0.69

0.91

1.14

1.37

1.60

1.83

2.06

2.29

2.51

2.74

2.97

3.20

3.43

3.66

3.89

4.11

4.34

4.57

4.80

 

CH1

4.80

0.23

 

 

CH2

 

 

1.00

1.80

2.60

3.40

4.20

5.00

5.80

6.60

7.40

8.20

9.00

7.85

6.71

5.56

4.42

3.27

2.13

0.98

-0.16

-1.31

-2.45

-3.60

 

CH2

9.00

-3.60

 

 

CH3

 

 

-0.01

-0.02

-0.03

-0.04

-0.05

-0.06

-0.07

-0.08

-0.09

-0.10

-0.11

-0.12

-0.13

-0.14

-0.15

-0.16

-0.17

-0.18

-0.19

-0.20

 

CH3

-0.01

-0.20

 

 

CH4

 

 

-0.37

-0.74

-1.11

-1.48

-1.85

-2.22

-2.59

-2.96

-3.33

-3.70

-4.07

-4.44

-4.81

-5.18

-5.55

-5.92

-6.29

-6.66

-7.03

-7.40

 

CH4

-0.37

-7.40

 

 

CH5

 

 

4.00

-7.00

-18.00

-16.00

-14.00

-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-3.89

-3.78

-3.67

-3.56

-3.45

-3.34

-3.23

-3.12

-3.01

-2.90

 

CH5

4.00

-18.00

 

 

CH6

-3.08

-4.10

2.50

1.30

2.50

0.90

1.80

2.70

3.60

3.30

2.99

2.69

2.38

2.08

1.77

1.47

1.16

0.86

0.55

0.25

-0.06

-0.37

-0.67

-0.98

-1.28

-1.59

-1.89

-2.20

-2.50

 

CH6

3.60

-4.10

 

 

CH7

 

 

11.00

0.00

-2.40

-1.60

0.00

3.00

7.90

7.73

7.55

7.38

7.20

7.03

6.85

6.68

6.50

6.33

6.15

5.98

5.80

5.63

5.45

5.28

5.10

2.65

0.20

-2.25

-4.70

 

CH7

11.00

-4.70

 

 

CH8

0.50

1.00

-1.00

-1.30

-1.60

0.43

2.47

4.50

6.53

8.57

10.60

9.53

8.45

7.38

6.31

5.23

4.16

3.09

2.01

0.94

-0.13

-1.21

-2.28

-3.35

-4.43

-5.50

-4.67

-3.83

-3.00

 

CH8

10.60

-5.50

 

 

CH9

 

 

0.14

0.29

0.43

0.57

0.71

0.86

1.00

1.14

1.29

1.43

1.57

1.71

1.86

2.00

0.05

-1.90

-3.85

-5.80

 

CH9

2.00

-5.80

 

 

CH10

 

 

-0.12

-0.25

-0.37

-0.49

-0.62

-0.74

-0.86

-0.99

-1.11

-1.24

-1.36

-1.48

-1.61

-1.73

-1.85

-1.98

-2.10

 

CH10

-0.12

-2.10

 

 

CH11

 

 

-0.55

-1.10

-1.65

-2.20

-2.75

-3.30

-3.85

-4.40

-6.06

-7.71

-9.37

-11.02

-12.68

-14.33

-15.99

-17.64

-19.30

 

CH11

-0.55

-19.30

 

 

CH12

 

 

-2.67

-5.33

-8.00

-10.67

-13.33

-16.00

-13.83

-11.67

-9.50

-7.33

-5.17

-3.00

-1.00

-14.00

1.60

 

CH12

1.60

-16.00

 

 

CH14

 

 

-2.60

-1.53

-0.47

0.60

-34.90

-30.60

-26.30

-22.00

-17.70

-13.40

-9.10

-4.80

-0.50

 

CH14

0.60

-34.90

 

 

CH15

 

 

0.03

0.07

0.10

0.13

0.17

0.20

0.23

0.27

0.30

-1.56

-3.42

-5.28

-7.14

-9.00

 

CH15

0.30

-9.00

 

 

CH17

 

 

1.30

-11.30

3.00

-4.00

-16.10

 

CH17

3.00

-16.10

 

 

CH18

 

 

-2.20

-4.40

-6.60

-8.80

 

CH18

-2.20

-8.80

 

 

CH23

 

 

-23.00

-10.20

 

CH23

-10.20

-23.00

 

 

RV1

 

 

-0.50

-2.36

-4.23

-6.09

-7.95

-9.81

-11.68

-13.54

-15.40

 

RV1

-0.50

-15.40

 

 

RV2

 

 

-7.00

-14.00

-21.00

-14.53

-8.07

-1.60

8.60

4.92

1.23

-2.45

-6.13

-9.82

-13.50

 

RV2

8.60

-21.00

 

 

RV3

 

 

-5.40

-4.00

-7.00

-3.60

6.95

17.50

5.30

1.70

-1.90

-5.50

-9.10

-12.70

-16.30

 

RV3

17.50

-16.30

 

 

RV9

 

 

-3.40

-6.80

-3.35

0.10

3.55

7.00

6.23

5.46

4.69

3.91

3.14

2.37

1.60

 

RV9

7.00

-6.80

 

 

RV19

 

 

-0.28

-0.57

-0.85

-1.13

-1.42

-1.70

 

RV19

-0.28

-1.70

 

 

RV20

 

 

4.00

-2.50

-4.40

-4.50

-2.70

-7.70

9.60

7.12

4.63

2.15

-0.33

-2.82

-5.30

 

RV20

9.60

-7.70

 

 

RV22

 

 

-1.70

-7.30

-12.90

-18.50

-24.10

 

RV22

-1.70

-24.10

 

 

OVLVW

 

-27.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

Decline, ft

-1.29

-1.55

4.17

0.00

-0.50

-0.09

1.42

2.80

4.01

3.28

2.18

0.63

0.57

0.62

0.39

0.20

-0.77

-1.68

-2.32

-1.85

-2.59

-1.76

-0.99

-1.46

-1.92

-3.45

-3.82

-6.49

-7.68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

rain

12.00

17.00

11.00

13.00

16.00

27.00

14.00

18.00

15.00

23.00

50.00

46.00

25.00

28.00

22.00

25.00

19.00

22.00

27.00

23.00

23.00

20.00

15.00

16.00

11.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 3

 

7 PERCENT POPULATION GROWTH

 

 

 

8/23/08 12:42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pop growth

 

1.07

/YR

 

Present golf course use,AF

3140

 

 

 

 

 

Use/pers/yr

 

0.2200

 AF

 

 

 

 

 

8/23/08 12:42

 

 

Decline

 

0.0008

f/AF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

POP

POP

GOLF

TOTAL

WATER L

TOTAL

PRESENT

FUTURE

FUTURE

 

 

 

 

 

 

WATER

COURSES

WATER

DECLINE

WATER

DEFICIT

CAP

DEFICIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

USE

USE

USE

ft/yr

LEVEL

(nat rchg=

SUPPLY

using

 

 

 

 

 

 

AF

AF

AF

 

DECLINE

2500AF)

NEEDED

CAP W.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ft

AF

AF

AF

 

 

 

 

1988

5208

1085

1000

2085

-0.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1989

5939

1238

1000

2238

-1.68

-2.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

6670

1413

1987

3400

-2.32

-4.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

1991

7745

1626

2184

3810

-1.85

-6.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

1992

9024

1814

2187

4001

-2.59

-9.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

1993

10335

2005

2240

4245

-1.76

-10.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994

11947

2865

2134

4999

-0.99

-11.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

1995

19657

2929

2658

5587

-1.46

-13.42

-3087

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

21405

4574

2708

7282

-1.92

-15.34

-4782

 

 

 

 

 

 

1997

22835

4577

2625

7202

-3.45

-18.79

-4702

 

 

 

`

 

 

 

1998

24738

5327

2738

8065

-3.82

-22.61

-5565

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999

26470

6586

2668

9254

-6.49

-29.10

-6754

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

30000

6662

3140

9125

-7.68

-36.78

-6625

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

32100

7062

3140

10202

-8.59

-45.37

-7702

 

 

 

 

 

 

2002

34347

7556

3140

10697

-9.00

-54.37

-8197

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

36751

8085

3140

11225

-9.45

-63.82

-8725

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

39324

8651

3140

11791

-9.92

-73.74

-9291

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

42077

9257

3140

12397

-10.43

-84.17

-9897

 

 

 

 

 

2006

45022

9905

3140

13045

-10.98

-95.15

-10545

 

 

 

 

 

2007

48173

10598

3140

13738

-11.56

-106.71

-11238

8635

-8243

 

 

 

2008

51546

11340

0

11340

-9.54

-116.26

-8840

7676

-6804

 

 

 

2009

55154

12134

0

12134

-10.21

-126.47

-9634

7994

-7280

 

 

 

2010

59015

12983

0

12983

-10.93

-137.40

-10483

8333

-7790

 

 

 

2011

63146

13892

0

13892

-11.69

-149.09

-11392

8697

-8335

 

 

 

2012

67566

14864

0

14864

-12.51

-161.60

-12364

9086

-8919

 

 

 

2013

72295

15905

0

15905

-13.39

-174.98

-13405

9502

-9543

 

 

 

2014

77356

17018

0

17018

-14.32

-189.31

-14518

9947

-10211

 

 

 

2015

82771

18210

0

18210

-15.33

-204.63

-15710

10424

-10926

 

 

 

2016

88565

19484

0

19484

-16.40

-221.03

-16984

10934

-11691

 

 

 

2017

94764

20848

0

20848

-17.55

-238.57

-18348

11479

-12509

 

 

 

2018

101398

22308

0

22308

-18.77

-257.35

-19808

12063

-13385

 

 

 

2019

108496

23869

0

23869

-20.09

-277.44

-21369

12688

-14321

 

 

 

2020

116091

25540

0

25540

-21.49

-298.93

-23040

13356

-15324

 

 

 

2021

124217

27328

0

27328

-23.00

-321.93

-24828

14071

-16397

 

 

 

2022

132912

29241

0

29241

-24.61

-346.54

-26741

14836

-17544

 

 

 

2023

142216

31287

0

31287

-26.33

-372.87

-28787

15655

-18772

 

 

 

2024

152171

33478

0

33478

-28.17

-401.05

-30978

16531

-20087

 

 

 

2025

162823

35821

0

35821

-30.15

-431.19

-33321

17468

-21493

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

file:4gTABLE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 4

 

4 PERCENT POPULATION GROWTH

 

 

 

8/23/08 12:42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pop growth

 

1.04

/YR

 

Present golf course use,AF

3140

 

 

 

 

 

Use/pers/yr

 

0.2200

 AF

 

 

 

 

 

8/23/08 12:42

 

 

Decline

 

0.0008

f/AF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

POP

POP

GOLF

TOTAL

WATER L

TOTAL

PRESENT

FUTURE

FUTURE

 

 

 

 

 

 

WATER

COURSES

WATER

DECLINE

WATER

DEFICIT

CAP

DEFICIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

USE

USE

USE

ft/yr

LEVEL

(nat rchg=

SUPPLY

using

 

 

 

 

 

 

AF

AF

AF

 

DECLINE

2500AF)

NEEDED

CAP W.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ft

AF

AF

AF

 

 

 

 

1988

5208

1085

1000

2085

-0.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1989

5939

1238

1000

2238

-1.68

-2.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

6670

1413

1987

3400

-2.32

-4.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

1991

7745

1626

2184

3810

-1.85

-6.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

1992

9024

1814

2187

4001

-2.59

-9.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

1993

10335

2005

2240

4245

-1.76

-10.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994

11947

2865

2134

4999

-0.99

-11.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

1995

19657

2929

2658

5587

-1.46

-13.42

-3087

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

21405

4574

2708

7282

-1.92

-15.34

-4782

 

 

 

 

 

 

1997

22835

4577

2625

7202

-3.45

-18.79

-4702

 

 

 

`

 

 

 

1998

24738

5327

2738

8065

-3.82

-22.61

-5565

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999

26470

6586

2668

9254

-6.49

-29.10

-6754

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

30000

6662

3140

9125

-7.68

-36.78

-6625

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

31200

6864

3140

10004

-8.42

-45.20

-7504

 

 

 

 

 

 

2002

32448

7139

3140

10279

-8.65

-53.85

-7779

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

33746

7424

3140

10564

-8.89

-62.74

-8064

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

35096

7721

3140

10861

-9.14

-71.88

-8361

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

36500

8030

3140

11170

-9.40

-81.28

-8670

 

 

 

 

 

2006

37960

8351

3140

11491

-9.67

-90.95

-8991

 

 

 

 

 

2007

39478

8685

3140

11825

-9.95

-100.91

-9325

7870

-7095

 

 

 

2008

41057

9033

0

9033

-7.60

-108.51

-6533

6753

-5420

 

 

 

2009

42699

9394

0

9394

-7.91

-116.41

-6894

6898

-5636

 

 

 

2010

44407

9770

0

9770

-8.22

-124.64

-7270

7048

-5862

 

 

 

2011

46184

10160

0

10160

-8.55

-133.19

-7660

7204

-6096

 

 

 

2012

48031

10567

0

10567

-8.89

-142.08

-8067

7367

-6340

 

 

 

2013

49952

10989

0

10989

-9.25

-151.33

-8489

7536

-6594

 

 

 

2014

51950

11429

0

11429

-9.62

-160.95

-8929

7712

-6857

 

 

 

2015

54028

11886

0

11886

-10.00

-170.95

-9386

7894

-7132

 

 

 

2016

56189

12362

0

12362

-10.40

-181.35

-9862

8085

-7417

 

 

 

2017

58437

12856

0

12856

-10.82

-192.17

-10356

8282

-7714

 

 

 

2018

60774

13370

0

13370

-11.25

-203.43

-10870

8488

-8022

 

 

 

2019

63205

13905

0

13905

-11.70

-215.13

-11405

8702

-8343

 

 

 

2020

65734

14461

0

14461

-12.17

-227.30

-11961

8925

-8677

 

 

 

2021

68363

15040

0

15040

-12.66

-239.96

-12540

9156

-9024

 

 

 

2022

71098

15641

0

15641

-13.16

-253.12

-13141

9397

-9385

 

 

 

2023

73941

16267

0

16267

-13.69

-266.81

-13767

9647

-9760

 

 

 

2024

76899

16918

0

16918

-14.24

-281.05

-14418

9907

-10151

 

 

 

2025

79975

17595

0

17595

-14.81

-295.86

-15095

10178

-10557

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

file:4gTABLE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 5

 

ZERO GROWTH

 

 

 

 

 

#######

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pop growth

1.00

/YR

 

Present golf course use,AF

3140

 

 

 

 

 

Use/pers/yr

 

0.2200

 AF

 

 

 

 

 

8/23/08 12:43

 

 

Decline

 

0.0008

f/AF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YEAR

POP

POP

GOLF

TOTAL

WATER L

TOTAL

PRESENT

FUTURE

FUTURE

 

 

 

 

 

 

WATER

COURSES

WATER

DECLINE

WATER

DEFICIT

CAP

DEFICIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

USE

USE

USE

ft/yr

LEVEL

(nat rchg=

SUPPLY

using

 

 

 

 

 

 

AF

AF

AF

 

DECLINE

2500AF)

NEEDED

CAP W.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ft

AF

AF

AF

 

 

 

 

1988

5208

1085

1000

2085

-0.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1989

5939

1238

1000

2238

-1.68

-2.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

1990

6670

1413

1987

3400

-2.32

-4.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

1991

7745

1626

2184

3810

-1.85

-6.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

1992

9024

1814

2187

4001

-2.59

-9.21

 

 

 

 

 

 

1993

10335

2005

2240

4245

-1.76

-10.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994

11947

2865

2134

4999

-0.99

-11.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

1995

19657

2929

2658

5587

-1.46

-13.42

-3087

 

 

 

 

 

 

1996

21405

4574

2708

7282

-1.92

-15.34

-4782

 

 

 

 

 

 

1997

22835

4577

2625

7202

-3.45

-18.79

-4702

 

 

 

`

 

 

 

1998

24738

5327

2738

8065

-3.82

-22.61

-5565

 

 

 

 

 

 

1999

26470

6586

2668

9254

-6.49

-29.10

-6754

 

 

 

 

 

 

2000

30000

6662

3140

9125

-7.68

-36.78

-6625

 

 

 

 

 

 

2001

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-44.98

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

 

2002

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-53.17

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-61.37

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

 

2004

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-69.57

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-77.77

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

2006

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-85.96

-7240

 

 

 

 

 

2007

30000

6600

3140

9740

-8.20

-94.16

-7240

7036

-5844

 

 

 

2008

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-99.72

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2009

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-105.27

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2010

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-110.82

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2011

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-116.38

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2012

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-121.93

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2013

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-127.49

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2014

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-133.04

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2015

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-138.60

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2016

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-144.15

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2017

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-149.71

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2018

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-155.26

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2019

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-160.82

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2020

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-166.37

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2021

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-171.92

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2022

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-177.48

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2023

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-183.03

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2024

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-188.59

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

2025

30000

6600

0

6600

-5.55

-194.14

-4100

5780

-3960

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

file:4gTABLE