REPORT ON
Hector Conde,
ASSUMPTIONS: Population growth
will continue at its present rate of 7%/yr. Natural recharge for the area is
2500 AF/yr. Water table decline is
assumed to continue at the present rate of .001113 ft per AF of water use. At
some time water will be blended with CAP water at a 40-60 rate, to be delivered
to the user (40% CAP water). There are not supposed to be any more golf courses
built in
TABLE 1 shows water usage in Oro Valley for a 10 year period. Row “town use” shows the town withdrawal from all OV wells. Subtracting irrigation use leaves use by the population. Row “Population” comes mostly out of PAG data and the census. The town of Oro Valley does not report golf course usage. Data recently obtained from ADWR shows all golf courses demand, both from the OVWU and private (Oro Valley Country Club and AMPHI). AMPHI use is for irrigation of lawn and is about 100 AF/yr. This shows that potable water pumped for golf courses is one-third of the town usage. This percentage has changed from 1996 due to population increases. Actually the golf course water use has increased 15 percent from last year and 50 percent in the last ten years.
TABLE 2 shows yearly water table decline, by well. It is built from some data points and further linear interpolation. The last row on TABLE 2 shows average yearly decline in each of the last 20 years.
TABLE 3 shows population increase and water use through the year 2025. Population increase is assumed at a rate of 7% per year. I used the last year use per capita, that is .22 AF/yr.
Column E is the sum of Population and Golf Course use.
Column H is column E minus the natural recharge.
Column I is 40% of column E, plus the natural recharge
Column J is 40% of column E minus natural recharge.
The deficit is calculated based on the water use minus the natural recharge, calculated by a local hydrologist at 2500 AF/yr. We believe that the natural recharge is in excess of 3500 AF/yr. This case will increase column J in tables 3, 4 and 5 by 1000. The deficit shows to be worsening continually.
If CAP water is available in 5 years (2006), an unlikely event, and blended with local water at a 40-60 rate, only the amounts shown in column H can be blended to work towards safe yield. Nevertheless, this will result in a constantly increasing deficit.
Water level decline after the year 2000 is calculated by multiplying column H by a constant, .008416 ft per AF of water demand (year 2000). TABLE 3 shows that the water table would drop 430 feet by 2025. Even if golf courses were irrigated with CAP water in 2006 the deficit by 2025 will be 21,493 AF/yr.
TABLE 4 shows the results of a population growth of 4%.
TABLE 5 shows that, even if population growth will cease immediately, there still will be a considerable water deficit.
CONCLUSIONS: The continuous mining of water is going to provoke the following problems in the near future:
1. Safe yield will not be obtained just by blending CAP water at any time. By the year 2025, the population will be drinking mostly unblended CAP water. Nevertheless, CAP water use is absolutely necessary to alleviate the problem.
At that time, the water deficit will be 21,000 AF/yr, or almost 3 times the present deficit.
2. The proposed use of desalinization is going to make the drinking water more expensive, even if the methods available for treatment were feasible.
3. It has been shown in the
scientific literature (1) that, depending on the geology, subsidence may occur
after a 100 foot decline in the water table. In
4. Thanks to Mr. Bob Rubino for his useful comments.
Data was obtained from the town of Oro Valley and the ADWR.
(1) S.R.Anderson. Potential for aquifer compaction, land subsidence and earth fissures in the Tucson basin. USGS HA-713
R.T.Hanson and J.F.Benedict Simulation of ground-water flow and potential land subsidence, Upper Santa Cruz Basin, Arizona USGS Rept. 93-4196
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WATER USAGE IN OV AREA WELLS |
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####### |
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ov # |
WELL |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
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CH1 |
55-612363 |
322.72 |
393.61 |
378.7 |
392.86 |
368.97 |
362.6 |
680 |
653.88 |
638.02 |
465.92 |
376.85 |
|
CH2 |
55-612364 |
20.07 |
22.68 |
23.3 |
182.99 |
231 |
322 |
193 |
0.8 |
1.26 |
78 |
67.46 |
|
CH3 |
55-612365 |
|
460.31 |
440.66 |
412.05 |
|||||||
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CH4 |
55-612366 |
267.44 |
280.9 |
285.7 |
290.61 |
287 |
325 |
345 |
363.76 |
387.62 |
398.13 |
386.42 |
|
CH5 |
55-612367 |
278.29 |
273.56 |
284.06 |
322.36 |
373 |
260 |
250 |
238.79 |
231.55 |
225.45 |
229.37 |
|
CH6 |
55-612368 |
62.79 |
61.28 |
61.68 |
36.71 |
172 |
311 |
465 |
440.06 |
349.75 |
340.67 |
307.06 |
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CH7 |
55-612369 |
14.39 |
24.94 |
33.57 |
55.62 |
74 |
116 |
104 |
193.05 |
262.37 |
326.73 |
280.70 |
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CH8 |
55-612370 |
46.59 |
12.05 |
7.82 |
23.45 |
6 |
9 |
49 |
0.07 |
0.84 |
0.07 |
0.10 |
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CH9 |
55-504285 |
107.74 |
133.12 |
142.22 |
11.1 |
106 |
99 |
148 |
151.84 |
114.95 |
15.07 |
0.00 |
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CH10 |
55-506548 |
|
408.99 |
456.19 |
494.69 |
|||||||
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CH11 |
55-505862 |
101.86 |
78.3 |
76.49 |
87.42 |
88 |
103 |
140 |
161.65 |
118.46 |
115.24 |
166.82 |
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CH12 |
55-510019 |
394.04 |
415.83 |
491.81 |
484.43 |
517 |
404 |
279 |
417.91 |
389.47 |
354.29 |
469.51 |
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CH14 |
55-517374 |
423.38 |
481.49 |
415.35 |
353.06 |
346 |
318 |
288 |
243.61 |
182.48 |
251.22 |
273.10 |
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CH15 |
55-512346 |
113.99 |
113.32 |
11.34 |
115.88 |
125 |
92 |
112 |
108.95 |
79.75 |
120.21 |
9.68 |
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CH17 |
55-544219 |
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257 |
378.42 |
259.17 |
315.34 |
340.68 |
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CH18 |
55-537133 |
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222.21 |
584.99 |
1010.66 |
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CH23 |
55-565547 |
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106.89 |
713.77 |
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55-628749 |
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307.57 |
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RV1 |
55-605802 |
322.72 |
393.61 |
378.7 |
392.86 |
368.97 |
362.6 |
389 |
330.98 |
265.12 |
487.88 |
499.33 |
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RV2 |
55-605799 |
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429 |
363.52 |
330.15 |
580.5 |
702.44 |
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RV3 |
55-605803 |
0.76 |
5.86 |
63.3 |
0 |
96.55 |
370.3 |
413 |
274.35 |
265.08 |
215.91 |
339.45 |
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RV9 |
55-517031 |
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183 |
138.84 |
89.39 |
135.92 |
152.74 |
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RV19 |
55-543853 |
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233.75 |
489.31 |
425.57 |
467.35 |
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RV20 |
55-517644 |
0 |
0 |
81.66 |
312.58 |
638.46 |
806.8 |
691 |
717.36 |
506.65 |
777.95 |
654.49 |
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RV22 |
55-547718 |
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3 |
173 |
283.82 |
258.59 |
432.57 |
462.82 |
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Town use |
AF |
2476.8 |
2690.6 |
2735.7 |
3061.9 |
3797.95 |
4264 |
5588 |
5695.4 |
6311.5 |
7651.4 |
9125.11 |
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%increase |
|
8.6 |
1.7 |
11.9 |
24.0 |
12.3 |
31.0 |
1.9 |
10.8 |
21.2 |
19.3 |
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OVWU golf |
AF |
1367.9 |
1631.2 |
1674.7 |
1658.6 |
1613.2 |
1938 |
2151.2 |
2012.8 |
2196.9 |
2091.2 |
2467.3 |
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Pop usage |
AF |
1108.9 |
1059.4 |
1061 |
1403.3 |
2184.75 |
2326 |
3436.8 |
3682.6 |
4114.6 |
5560.2 |
6657.81 |
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% of pop.u |
golf |
123.36 |
153.98 |
157.84 |
118.19 |
73.84 |
83.33 |
62.59 |
54.66 |
53.39 |
37.61 |
37.06 |
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% of tot.us |
golf |
55.23 |
60.63 |
61.22 |
54.17 |
42.48 |
45.45 |
38.50 |
35.34 |
34.81 |
27.33 |
27.04 |
|
Population (PAG) |
6670 |
7745 |
9024 |
10335 |
11947 |
19657 |
21726 |
23794 |
25863 |
27931 |
30000 |
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Pop Incr |
% |
|
13.9 |
14.2 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
39.2 |
9.5 |
8.7 |
8.0 |
7.4 |
6.9 |
|
Use/pers |
AF/yr |
0.17 |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
0.18 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.20 |
0.22 |
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Avg use/p |
0.1591 |
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Use/pers |
gall/day |
|
122.13 |
104.98 |
121.24 |
163.28 |
105.66 |
141.25 |
138.19 |
142.05 |
177.74 |
198.15 |
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GOLF COURSE AND IRRIGATION
USAGE |
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OVCClub |
58-101530 |
511.5 |
429.9 |
408.8 |
475.7 |
411.9 |
615 |
456 |
506 |
443 |
488 |
576.00 |
|
AMPHI |
55-617049 |
107.37 |
122.56 |
103.93 |
105.27 |
109.17 |
104.9 |
101.15 |
105.89 |
98.35 |
88.6 |
96.87 |
|
El Conq
CC |
OVWU |
716.1 |
1035.6 |
1016.8 |
955 |
942.7 |
948.6 |
1036.2 |
955.1 |
819 |
837.8 |
898.60 |
|
El Conq
Re |
OVWU |
273.5 |
227.7 |
266.3 |
282.6 |
226.5 |
198.5 |
216 |
200.8 |
206.7 |
224.8 |
204.00 |
|
GC @ Vist |
OVWU |
|
289.2 |
467.3 |
449.7 |
343.2 |
349.2 |
353.30 |
||||
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Stone Cy |
OVWU |
|
443 |
240 |
595.80 |
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OVWU |
378.3 |
367.9 |
391.6 |
421 |
444 |
502 |
431.7 |
407.2 |
385 |
439.4 |
415.60 |
|
OVWU GC's |
1367.9 |
1631.2 |
1674.7 |
1658.6 |
1613.2 |
1938 |
2151.2 |
2012.8 |
2196.9 |
2091.2 |
2467.3 |
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Total==> |
|
1986.8 |
2183.7 |
2187.4 |
2239.6 |
2134.27 |
2658 |
2708.4 |
2624.7 |
2738.3 |
2667.8 |
3140.2 |
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%increase |
|
9.0 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
-4.9 |
19.7 |
1.9 |
-3.2 |
4.1 |
-2.6 |
15.0 |
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%incr.10 yr |
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36.73 |
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TABLE
2 |
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ALL
WELLS, INTERPOLATED, FT |
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##### |
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1972 |
1973 |
1974 |
1975 |
1976 |
1977 |
1978 |
1979 |
1980 |
1981 |
1982 |
1983 |
1984 |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
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max |
min |
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CH1 |
|
|
0.23 |
0.46 |
0.69 |
0.91 |
1.14 |
1.37 |
1.60 |
1.83 |
2.06 |
2.29 |
2.51 |
2.74 |
2.97 |
3.20 |
3.43 |
3.66 |
3.89 |
4.11 |
4.34 |
4.57 |
4.80 |
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CH1 |
4.80 |
0.23 |
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CH2 |
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|
1.00 |
1.80 |
2.60 |
3.40 |
4.20 |
5.00 |
5.80 |
6.60 |
7.40 |
8.20 |
9.00 |
7.85 |
6.71 |
5.56 |
4.42 |
3.27 |
2.13 |
0.98 |
-0.16 |
-1.31 |
-2.45 |
-3.60 |
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CH2 |
9.00 |
-3.60 |
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CH3 |
|
|
-0.01 |
-0.02 |
-0.03 |
-0.04 |
-0.05 |
-0.06 |
-0.07 |
-0.08 |
-0.09 |
-0.10 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.13 |
-0.14 |
-0.15 |
-0.16 |
-0.17 |
-0.18 |
-0.19 |
-0.20 |
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CH3 |
-0.01 |
-0.20 |
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CH4 |
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-0.37 |
-0.74 |
-1.11 |
-1.48 |
-1.85 |
-2.22 |
-2.59 |
-2.96 |
-3.33 |
-3.70 |
-4.07 |
-4.44 |
-4.81 |
-5.18 |
-5.55 |
-5.92 |
-6.29 |
-6.66 |
-7.03 |
-7.40 |
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CH4 |
-0.37 |
-7.40 |
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CH5 |
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|
4.00 |
-7.00 |
-18.00 |
-16.00 |
-14.00 |
-12.00 |
-10.00 |
-8.00 |
-6.00 |
-4.00 |
-3.89 |
-3.78 |
-3.67 |
-3.56 |
-3.45 |
-3.34 |
-3.23 |
-3.12 |
-3.01 |
-2.90 |
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CH5 |
4.00 |
-18.00 |
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CH6 |
-3.08 |
-4.10 |
2.50 |
1.30 |
2.50 |
0.90 |
1.80 |
2.70 |
3.60 |
3.30 |
2.99 |
2.69 |
2.38 |
2.08 |
1.77 |
1.47 |
1.16 |
0.86 |
0.55 |
0.25 |
-0.06 |
-0.37 |
-0.67 |
-0.98 |
-1.28 |
-1.59 |
-1.89 |
-2.20 |
-2.50 |
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CH6 |
3.60 |
-4.10 |
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CH7 |
|
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11.00 |
0.00 |
-2.40 |
-1.60 |
0.00 |
3.00 |
7.90 |
7.73 |
7.55 |
7.38 |
7.20 |
7.03 |
6.85 |
6.68 |
6.50 |
6.33 |
6.15 |
5.98 |
5.80 |
5.63 |
5.45 |
5.28 |
5.10 |
2.65 |
0.20 |
-2.25 |
-4.70 |
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CH7 |
11.00 |
-4.70 |
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CH8 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
-1.00 |
-1.30 |
-1.60 |
0.43 |
2.47 |
4.50 |
6.53 |
8.57 |
10.60 |
9.53 |
8.45 |
7.38 |
6.31 |
5.23 |
4.16 |
3.09 |
2.01 |
0.94 |
-0.13 |
-1.21 |
-2.28 |
-3.35 |
-4.43 |
-5.50 |
-4.67 |
-3.83 |
-3.00 |
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CH8 |
10.60 |
-5.50 |
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CH9 |
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0.14 |
0.29 |
0.43 |
0.57 |
0.71 |
0.86 |
1.00 |
1.14 |
1.29 |
1.43 |
1.57 |
1.71 |
1.86 |
2.00 |
0.05 |
-1.90 |
-3.85 |
-5.80 |
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CH9 |
2.00 |
-5.80 |
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CH10 |
|
|
-0.12 |
-0.25 |
-0.37 |
-0.49 |
-0.62 |
-0.74 |
-0.86 |
-0.99 |
-1.11 |
-1.24 |
-1.36 |
-1.48 |
-1.61 |
-1.73 |
-1.85 |
-1.98 |
-2.10 |
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CH10 |
-0.12 |
-2.10 |
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CH11 |
|
|
-0.55 |
-1.10 |
-1.65 |
-2.20 |
-2.75 |
-3.30 |
-3.85 |
-4.40 |
-6.06 |
-7.71 |
-9.37 |
-11.02 |
-12.68 |
-14.33 |
-15.99 |
-17.64 |
-19.30 |
|
CH11 |
-0.55 |
-19.30 |
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CH12 |
|
|
-2.67 |
-5.33 |
-8.00 |
-10.67 |
-13.33 |
-16.00 |
-13.83 |
-11.67 |
-9.50 |
-7.33 |
-5.17 |
-3.00 |
-1.00 |
-14.00 |
1.60 |
|
CH12 |
1.60 |
-16.00 |
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CH14 |
|
|
-2.60 |
-1.53 |
-0.47 |
0.60 |
-34.90 |
-30.60 |
-26.30 |
-22.00 |
-17.70 |
-13.40 |
-9.10 |
-4.80 |
-0.50 |
|
CH14 |
0.60 |
-34.90 |
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CH15 |
|
|
0.03 |
0.07 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
0.17 |
0.20 |
0.23 |
0.27 |
0.30 |
-1.56 |
-3.42 |
-5.28 |
-7.14 |
-9.00 |
|
CH15 |
0.30 |
-9.00 |
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CH17 |
|
|
1.30 |
-11.30 |
3.00 |
-4.00 |
-16.10 |
|
CH17 |
3.00 |
-16.10 |
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|
CH18 |
|
|
-2.20 |
-4.40 |
-6.60 |
-8.80 |
|
CH18 |
-2.20 |
-8.80 |
|
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|
CH23 |
|
|
-23.00 |
-10.20 |
|
CH23 |
-10.20 |
-23.00 |
|
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|
RV1 |
|
|
-0.50 |
-2.36 |
-4.23 |
-6.09 |
-7.95 |
-9.81 |
-11.68 |
-13.54 |
-15.40 |
|
RV1 |
-0.50 |
-15.40 |
|
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|
RV2 |
|
|
-7.00 |
-14.00 |
-21.00 |
-14.53 |
-8.07 |
-1.60 |
8.60 |
4.92 |
1.23 |
-2.45 |
-6.13 |
-9.82 |
-13.50 |
|
RV2 |
8.60 |
-21.00 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
RV3 |
|
|
-5.40 |
-4.00 |
-7.00 |
-3.60 |
6.95 |
17.50 |
5.30 |
1.70 |
-1.90 |
-5.50 |
-9.10 |
-12.70 |
-16.30 |
|
RV3 |
17.50 |
-16.30 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
RV9 |
|
|
-3.40 |
-6.80 |
-3.35 |
0.10 |
3.55 |
7.00 |
6.23 |
5.46 |
4.69 |
3.91 |
3.14 |
2.37 |
1.60 |
|
RV9 |
7.00 |
-6.80 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
RV19 |
|
|
-0.28 |
-0.57 |
-0.85 |
-1.13 |
-1.42 |
-1.70 |
|
RV19 |
-0.28 |
-1.70 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
RV20 |
|
|
4.00 |
-2.50 |
-4.40 |
-4.50 |
-2.70 |
-7.70 |
9.60 |
7.12 |
4.63 |
2.15 |
-0.33 |
-2.82 |
-5.30 |
|
RV20 |
9.60 |
-7.70 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
RV22 |
|
|
-1.70 |
-7.30 |
-12.90 |
-18.50 |
-24.10 |
|
RV22 |
-1.70 |
-24.10 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
OVLVW |
|
-27.70 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Decline,
ft |
-1.29 |
-1.55 |
4.17 |
0.00 |
-0.50 |
-0.09 |
1.42 |
2.80 |
4.01 |
3.28 |
2.18 |
0.63 |
0.57 |
0.62 |
0.39 |
0.20 |
-0.77 |
-1.68 |
-2.32 |
-1.85 |
-2.59 |
-1.76 |
-0.99 |
-1.46 |
-1.92 |
-3.45 |
-3.82 |
-6.49 |
-7.68 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
rain |
12.00 |
17.00 |
11.00 |
13.00 |
16.00 |
27.00 |
14.00 |
18.00 |
15.00 |
23.00 |
50.00 |
46.00 |
25.00 |
28.00 |
22.00 |
25.00 |
19.00 |
22.00 |
27.00 |
23.00 |
23.00 |
20.00 |
15.00 |
16.00 |
11.00 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
TABLE 3 |
|
7 PERCENT
POPULATION GROWTH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pop growth |
|
1.07 |
/YR |
|
Present golf
course use,AF |
3140 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Use/pers/yr |
|
0.2200 |
AF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Decline |
|
0.0008 |
f/AF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
G |
H |
I |
J |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
YEAR |
POP |
POP |
GOLF |
TOTAL |
WATER L |
TOTAL |
PRESENT |
FUTURE |
FUTURE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WATER |
COURSES |
WATER |
DECLINE |
WATER |
DEFICIT |
CAP |
DEFICIT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USE |
USE |
USE |
ft/yr |
LEVEL |
(nat rchg= |
SUPPLY |
using |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
DECLINE |
2500AF) |
NEEDED |
CAP W. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ft |
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
|
|
|
||
|
1988 |
5208 |
1085 |
1000 |
2085 |
-0.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1989 |
5939 |
1238 |
1000 |
2238 |
-1.68 |
-2.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1990 |
6670 |
1413 |
1987 |
3400 |
-2.32 |
-4.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1991 |
7745 |
1626 |
2184 |
3810 |
-1.85 |
-6.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1992 |
9024 |
1814 |
2187 |
4001 |
-2.59 |
-9.21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1993 |
10335 |
2005 |
2240 |
4245 |
-1.76 |
-10.97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1994 |
11947 |
2865 |
2134 |
4999 |
-0.99 |
-11.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1995 |
19657 |
2929 |
2658 |
5587 |
-1.46 |
-13.42 |
-3087 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 |
21405 |
4574 |
2708 |
7282 |
-1.92 |
-15.34 |
-4782 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
22835 |
4577 |
2625 |
7202 |
-3.45 |
-18.79 |
-4702 |
|
|
|
` |
|
|
|
|
1998 |
24738 |
5327 |
2738 |
8065 |
-3.82 |
-22.61 |
-5565 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999 |
26470 |
6586 |
2668 |
9254 |
-6.49 |
-29.10 |
-6754 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
30000 |
6662 |
3140 |
9125 |
-7.68 |
-36.78 |
-6625 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2001 |
32100 |
7062 |
3140 |
10202 |
-8.59 |
-45.37 |
-7702 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 |
34347 |
7556 |
3140 |
10697 |
-9.00 |
-54.37 |
-8197 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
36751 |
8085 |
3140 |
11225 |
-9.45 |
-63.82 |
-8725 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
39324 |
8651 |
3140 |
11791 |
-9.92 |
-73.74 |
-9291 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
42077 |
9257 |
3140 |
12397 |
-10.43 |
-84.17 |
-9897 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2006 |
45022 |
9905 |
3140 |
13045 |
-10.98 |
-95.15 |
-10545 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2007 |
48173 |
10598 |
3140 |
13738 |
-11.56 |
-106.71 |
-11238 |
8635 |
-8243 |
|
|
|
||
|
2008 |
51546 |
11340 |
0 |
11340 |
-9.54 |
-116.26 |
-8840 |
7676 |
-6804 |
|
|
|
||
|
2009 |
55154 |
12134 |
0 |
12134 |
-10.21 |
-126.47 |
-9634 |
7994 |
-7280 |
|
|
|
||
|
2010 |
59015 |
12983 |
0 |
12983 |
-10.93 |
-137.40 |
-10483 |
8333 |
-7790 |
|
|
|
||
|
2011 |
63146 |
13892 |
0 |
13892 |
-11.69 |
-149.09 |
-11392 |
8697 |
-8335 |
|
|
|
||
|
2012 |
67566 |
14864 |
0 |
14864 |
-12.51 |
-161.60 |
-12364 |
9086 |
-8919 |
|
|
|
||
|
2013 |
72295 |
15905 |
0 |
15905 |
-13.39 |
-174.98 |
-13405 |
9502 |
-9543 |
|
|
|
||
|
2014 |
77356 |
17018 |
0 |
17018 |
-14.32 |
-189.31 |
-14518 |
9947 |
-10211 |
|
|
|
||
|
2015 |
82771 |
18210 |
0 |
18210 |
-15.33 |
-204.63 |
-15710 |
10424 |
-10926 |
|
|
|
||
|
2016 |
88565 |
19484 |
0 |
19484 |
-16.40 |
-221.03 |
-16984 |
10934 |
-11691 |
|
|
|
||
|
2017 |
94764 |
20848 |
0 |
20848 |
-17.55 |
-238.57 |
-18348 |
11479 |
-12509 |
|
|
|
||
|
2018 |
101398 |
22308 |
0 |
22308 |
-18.77 |
-257.35 |
-19808 |
12063 |
-13385 |
|
|
|
||
|
2019 |
108496 |
23869 |
0 |
23869 |
-20.09 |
-277.44 |
-21369 |
12688 |
-14321 |
|
|
|
||
|
2020 |
116091 |
25540 |
0 |
25540 |
-21.49 |
-298.93 |
-23040 |
13356 |
-15324 |
|
|
|
||
|
2021 |
124217 |
27328 |
0 |
27328 |
-23.00 |
-321.93 |
-24828 |
14071 |
-16397 |
|
|
|
||
|
2022 |
132912 |
29241 |
0 |
29241 |
-24.61 |
-346.54 |
-26741 |
14836 |
-17544 |
|
|
|
||
|
2023 |
142216 |
31287 |
0 |
31287 |
-26.33 |
-372.87 |
-28787 |
15655 |
-18772 |
|
|
|
||
|
2024 |
152171 |
33478 |
0 |
33478 |
-28.17 |
-401.05 |
-30978 |
16531 |
-20087 |
|
|
|
||
|
2025 |
162823 |
35821 |
0 |
35821 |
-30.15 |
-431.19 |
-33321 |
17468 |
-21493 |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
file:4gTABLE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
TABLE 4 |
|
4 PERCENT
POPULATION GROWTH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pop growth |
|
1.04 |
/YR |
|
Present golf
course use,AF |
3140 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Use/pers/yr |
|
0.2200 |
AF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Decline |
|
0.0008 |
f/AF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
G |
H |
I |
J |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
YEAR |
POP |
POP |
GOLF |
TOTAL |
WATER L |
TOTAL |
PRESENT |
FUTURE |
FUTURE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WATER |
COURSES |
WATER |
DECLINE |
WATER |
DEFICIT |
CAP |
DEFICIT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USE |
USE |
USE |
ft/yr |
LEVEL |
(nat rchg= |
SUPPLY |
using |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
DECLINE |
2500AF) |
NEEDED |
CAP W. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ft |
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
|
|
|
||
|
1988 |
5208 |
1085 |
1000 |
2085 |
-0.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1989 |
5939 |
1238 |
1000 |
2238 |
-1.68 |
-2.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1990 |
6670 |
1413 |
1987 |
3400 |
-2.32 |
-4.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1991 |
7745 |
1626 |
2184 |
3810 |
-1.85 |
-6.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1992 |
9024 |
1814 |
2187 |
4001 |
-2.59 |
-9.21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1993 |
10335 |
2005 |
2240 |
4245 |
-1.76 |
-10.97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1994 |
11947 |
2865 |
2134 |
4999 |
-0.99 |
-11.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1995 |
19657 |
2929 |
2658 |
5587 |
-1.46 |
-13.42 |
-3087 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 |
21405 |
4574 |
2708 |
7282 |
-1.92 |
-15.34 |
-4782 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
22835 |
4577 |
2625 |
7202 |
-3.45 |
-18.79 |
-4702 |
|
|
|
` |
|
|
|
|
1998 |
24738 |
5327 |
2738 |
8065 |
-3.82 |
-22.61 |
-5565 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999 |
26470 |
6586 |
2668 |
9254 |
-6.49 |
-29.10 |
-6754 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
30000 |
6662 |
3140 |
9125 |
-7.68 |
-36.78 |
-6625 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2001 |
31200 |
6864 |
3140 |
10004 |
-8.42 |
-45.20 |
-7504 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 |
32448 |
7139 |
3140 |
10279 |
-8.65 |
-53.85 |
-7779 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
33746 |
7424 |
3140 |
10564 |
-8.89 |
-62.74 |
-8064 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
35096 |
7721 |
3140 |
10861 |
-9.14 |
-71.88 |
-8361 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
36500 |
8030 |
3140 |
11170 |
-9.40 |
-81.28 |
-8670 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2006 |
37960 |
8351 |
3140 |
11491 |
-9.67 |
-90.95 |
-8991 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2007 |
39478 |
8685 |
3140 |
11825 |
-9.95 |
-100.91 |
-9325 |
7870 |
-7095 |
|
|
|
||
|
2008 |
41057 |
9033 |
0 |
9033 |
-7.60 |
-108.51 |
-6533 |
6753 |
-5420 |
|
|
|
||
|
2009 |
42699 |
9394 |
0 |
9394 |
-7.91 |
-116.41 |
-6894 |
6898 |
-5636 |
|
|
|
||
|
2010 |
44407 |
9770 |
0 |
9770 |
-8.22 |
-124.64 |
-7270 |
7048 |
-5862 |
|
|
|
||
|
2011 |
46184 |
10160 |
0 |
10160 |
-8.55 |
-133.19 |
-7660 |
7204 |
-6096 |
|
|
|
||
|
2012 |
48031 |
10567 |
0 |
10567 |
-8.89 |
-142.08 |
-8067 |
7367 |
-6340 |
|
|
|
||
|
2013 |
49952 |
10989 |
0 |
10989 |
-9.25 |
-151.33 |
-8489 |
7536 |
-6594 |
|
|
|
||
|
2014 |
51950 |
11429 |
0 |
11429 |
-9.62 |
-160.95 |
-8929 |
7712 |
-6857 |
|
|
|
||
|
2015 |
54028 |
11886 |
0 |
11886 |
-10.00 |
-170.95 |
-9386 |
7894 |
-7132 |
|
|
|
||
|
2016 |
56189 |
12362 |
0 |
12362 |
-10.40 |
-181.35 |
-9862 |
8085 |
-7417 |
|
|
|
||
|
2017 |
58437 |
12856 |
0 |
12856 |
-10.82 |
-192.17 |
-10356 |
8282 |
-7714 |
|
|
|
||
|
2018 |
60774 |
13370 |
0 |
13370 |
-11.25 |
-203.43 |
-10870 |
8488 |
-8022 |
|
|
|
||
|
2019 |
63205 |
13905 |
0 |
13905 |
-11.70 |
-215.13 |
-11405 |
8702 |
-8343 |
|
|
|
||
|
2020 |
65734 |
14461 |
0 |
14461 |
-12.17 |
-227.30 |
-11961 |
8925 |
-8677 |
|
|
|
||
|
2021 |
68363 |
15040 |
0 |
15040 |
-12.66 |
-239.96 |
-12540 |
9156 |
-9024 |
|
|
|
||
|
2022 |
71098 |
15641 |
0 |
15641 |
-13.16 |
-253.12 |
-13141 |
9397 |
-9385 |
|
|
|
||
|
2023 |
73941 |
16267 |
0 |
16267 |
-13.69 |
-266.81 |
-13767 |
9647 |
-9760 |
|
|
|
||
|
2024 |
76899 |
16918 |
0 |
16918 |
-14.24 |
-281.05 |
-14418 |
9907 |
-10151 |
|
|
|
||
|
2025 |
79975 |
17595 |
0 |
17595 |
-14.81 |
-295.86 |
-15095 |
10178 |
-10557 |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
file:4gTABLE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
TABLE 5 |
|
ZERO GROWTH |
|
|
|
|
|
####### |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pop growth |
1.00 |
/YR |
|
Present golf
course use,AF |
3140 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Use/pers/ |
|
0.2200 |
AF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|||
|
Decline |
|
0.0008 |
f/AF |
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|
A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
G |
H |
I |
J |
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||||||
|
YEAR |
POP |
POP |
GOLF |
TOTAL |
WATER L |
TOTAL |
PRESENT |
FUTURE |
FUTURE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WATER |
COURSES |
WATER |
DECLINE |
WATER |
DEFICIT |
CAP |
DEFICIT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USE |
USE |
USE |
ft/yr |
LEVEL |
(nat rchg= |
SUPPLY |
using |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
DECLINE |
2500AF) |
NEEDED |
CAP W. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ft |
AF |
AF |
AF |
|
|
|
|
||
|
1988 |
5208 |
1085 |
1000 |
2085 |
-0.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1989 |
5939 |
1238 |
1000 |
2238 |
-1.68 |
-2.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1990 |
6670 |
1413 |
1987 |
3400 |
-2.32 |
-4.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1991 |
7745 |
1626 |
2184 |
3810 |
-1.85 |
-6.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1992 |
9024 |
1814 |
2187 |
4001 |
-2.59 |
-9.21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1993 |
10335 |
2005 |
2240 |
4245 |
-1.76 |
-10.97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1994 |
11947 |
2865 |
2134 |
4999 |
-0.99 |
-11.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
1995 |
19657 |
2929 |
2658 |
5587 |
-1.46 |
-13.42 |
-3087 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 |
21405 |
4574 |
2708 |
7282 |
-1.92 |
-15.34 |
-4782 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1997 |
22835 |
4577 |
2625 |
7202 |
-3.45 |
-18.79 |
-4702 |
|
|
|
` |
|
|
|
|
1998 |
24738 |
5327 |
2738 |
8065 |
-3.82 |
-22.61 |
-5565 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999 |
26470 |
6586 |
2668 |
9254 |
-6.49 |
-29.10 |
-6754 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
30000 |
6662 |
3140 |
9125 |
-7.68 |
-36.78 |
-6625 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2001 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-44.98 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-53.17 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-61.37 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-69.57 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-77.77 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2006 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-85.96 |
-7240 |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2007 |
30000 |
6600 |
3140 |
9740 |
-8.20 |
-94.16 |
-7240 |
7036 |
-5844 |
|
|
|
||
|
2008 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-99.72 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2009 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-105.27 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2010 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-110.82 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2011 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-116.38 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2012 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-121.93 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2013 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-127.49 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2014 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-133.04 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2015 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-138.60 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2016 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-144.15 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2017 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-149.71 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2018 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-155.26 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2019 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-160.82 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2020 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-166.37 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2021 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-171.92 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2022 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-177.48 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2023 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-183.03 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2024 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-188.59 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
2025 |
30000 |
6600 |
0 |
6600 |
-5.55 |
-194.14 |
-4100 |
5780 |
-3960 |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
file:4gTABLE |
|
|
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|
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|
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