Hector Conde worked as an engineering consultant for medical, army and nuclear physics research labs, was also a consultant for the state of Ca, the US government, the U. of California and private entities. Has authored 17 technical papers and 7 US patents. Conde worked for two Nobel price winners, Bernardo Houssay and Donald Glaser. He has been a resident of Arizona since his retirement in 1992, where he participated in 16 environmental committees.

The town of Oro Valley has proposed an annexation of 43 square miles of state land north of the town. (see exhibit 1) The town has not demonstrated how the annexation will contribute to the economic prosperity of the town. It may reduce the town’s deficit temporarily with impact fees and building taxes, but in the long run it will force the town to impose a property tax double of what it would this day.

Water availability in this area depends on the aquifer which lies between 192 and 403 feet below ground level. In contrast in Maricopa County the source is in large part surface water. The northern end of the Tucson aquifer is in Falcon Valley. The aquifer has different capacities depending on the soil underneath. Water in the aquifer moves slowly in a N-S and then E-W direction towards the Santa Cruz River, as shown in the USGS map.

It also runs downhill, as shown in the graph.

The graph represents schematically a full section of the aquifer in the NW. Notice that it is not to scale. What it shows is a big incongruence in the present laws, thanks to the Az. Legislature. At one time the Town of Oro Valley was fined because it exceeded the per capita allowance of water use (thanks to the golf courses). The allowed solution is to recharge the aquifer. Where, it does not matter. So we are recharging not in Oro Valley but in Avra Valley, about 1700 feet below our level and more than 12 miles away. The results are that the recharge benefits us not, maybe Marana. By allowing this the legislators did not catch the concept: water does not run uphill. Later the TOV decided to get serious about the water issue. They formed a committee to tackle the issue, of which I was a member. After a couple of years, we advised the town that they should recharge the aquifer with CAP water, of which we have a large allotment. Of course, the town, following its long history of arrogance, ignored the citizens and ordered the installation of reclaimed water, which is more expensive, cannot be used for recharge and will allow the town to have more golf courses, compounding the problem. To make the matters worse, the population at large is paying the cost of an installation that will benefit less than 10 percent of the population.

The annexation of the Tortolita slopes is destined to the same recipe as that of Neighborhood 11 and Honey Bee estates. The average asking price of these homes is 1.2 million dollars, according to the MLS. So, 43 square miles, at a minimum density of 1 dwelling per acre, makes 27,000 homes, or 33 billion dollars. That is if OV amends the General plan to a lower density than today, it could be higher. In the Neighborhood 11 case the public paid for a reservoir for a never-built hotel and some of the infrastructure. That kind of development usually entails adding golf courses, hence the long-range plans for a reclaimed water supply.

In 2001 I made some calculations on the use of water in OV (see exhibit 2) and came to the conclusion that, even if we blend the aquifer water, making it less palatable, and with a 4 percent population growth, we are never going to attain the safe yield required by law in 2035. The deficit will be, for a demand of 17,595 Acre feet/year 10,557 AF/y minus the 1500 af/y from reclaimed water, for a total of 9057. That is more than half the potable water the town uses. Notice that my OV safe yield report predicted in 2001 that with a 7 percent growth, the total water use would be 13,045 af while the present use is 13,384 af, a small difference.

The water availability in Falcon Valley is even more acute. At a meeting in Oracle in March 2001, where some hydrologists provided us with comments and data, we learned from hydrologist Earl Montgomery that the aquifer contained about 1.5 million af, with about 9000 af of recharge and about the same of underflow. That kept the aquifer stable for thousands of years. He also mentioned that the error can be as high as 50 percent, which is understandable since there have been no studies on it. Stan Leake, of the USGS said that pumping affects downflow. The proposed development plans for the area are large in scope. (See exhibit 3). There are no sources of renewable water. Water has to be brought from the Santa Cruz River aquifer (30 miles) or the CAP canal (24 miles) and pumped up. Actually, water to supply the village of Oracle is pumped about 200 feet uphill from Oracle Junction. A secondary effect is that the present underflow will not be available downstream, subtracting that amount from the water budget of the region.

One bad effect is to allow to develop 43 sq. miles of land with an allowable minimum of 43 * 640 = 27,520 homes at one home per acre, that will use water at a rate of 27,520 homes* 2.4 people/home * 200 gallons/day/person = 13,209,600 gall/day. That is 40.53 acre/feet per day or 14,796 acre feet per year. Which is more than 3.6 times the recharge based on United States Geological Survey data. (1) By comparison Oro Valley uses 13,384 Af/yr.

I once calculated that the water in Falcon Valley, if all development takes place, will dry the aquifer in about 30 years, a far cry from the mandatory 100 years assured water supply required by statute. (See exhibit 4.)

All these comments are less than certain. It probably be worse. The TOV could follow old tendencies and allow some higher density development, as shown in the new Land Use Map. It also may allow golf course development, as shown by the new reclaimed water installations. The last probability may not be in the best town interests, and I am referring to the taxpayers. (See exhibit 5.)

(1) D.R.Pool and K.C.Cole Aquifer-storage change in the lower Cañada del Oro subbasin. USGS report 99-4067

In summary: The area proposed as a future annexation area is going to bring non compliance with Safe Yield statutory requirements. It will assure a constant water deficit insoluble without legislature intervention. It will increase the cost of water for the users both in infrastructure and operational costs.